Nonsense Newsletter #16: Wandermania, Aaron Jones joins SCN and Culture Collision

Wander World

There are few prospects that reach the MLB with bigger expectations than Rays star shortstop Wander Franco. Despite being just 20 years old Franco was named 1 of 4, ever to be named the number 1 MLB prospect in back-to-back years (Franco named number 1 prospect 2 years in a row). The other players to have the honor are Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, and Bryce Harper who are all headed, most likely, to the baseball HOF.

How did Franco handle this hype? He handled it by hitting a game-tying 3-run home run on his first game (watch it here: Franco's first home run), he led his team in postseason batting average, and was signed to an 11 year $182 million dollar deal that was the largest in franchise history. The Franco hype certainly was prevalent on the baseball field but was even more prevalent in the sports card hobby space.

The name Wander Franco is a name that is not new to the baseball card world. His first Bowman card came out in 2019. Franco was already a big name then and his rare cards have sold for thousands out of that product.

Recently, Topps released its flagship Series 1 and the main draw was the Wander Franco flagship rookie card. The card started out hot like any new star rookie out of a product selling for about $30-$40 apiece but has since dropped down to $12-$15. This was seen as inevitable as the print run for base cards has been estimated in the 700k range. While the base cards have dipped, his numbered cards and parallels have done the opposite.

The three Wander Cards from Series 1 that will be analyzed in this article are the Wander Franco Clear/10, Gold /2022, and finally his base PSA 10. The Wander Franco Clear /10 is a monster card by all accounts. It has been the highest-selling Wander parallel out of Series 1 at $12,500. Next, we look at the Gold /2022 with the last three sales averaging $493. The last three sales were $600, $460, and $420. The Gold parallel is a significant card because even though it is rare, it can usually be found on eBay. Also, the gold parallel is popular due to its long history in the Topps flagship sets.

Lastly, we look at the Wander Franco PSA 10 that just did $2075. This is perhaps the most interesting card of the three because it is a card that will inevitably go down.

So, let’s analyze how the top rookie PSA 10s of the NBA and NFL season did with a mass-produced card.

For the most part, the hobby goes in patterns. We have already seen two similar mass-produced rookie card PSA 10s initially sell high then gradually fall off. The first Lamelo Ball Prizm rookie sold for $1850 and as more kept popping up the price went down. The Lamelo Ball PSA 10 Prizm base is now selling for around $385 or so. The same trend happened in football. The Mac Jones Donruss PSA spiked around $2,250 and now is around $231. The Wander PSA 10 will most likely all but fall off from its $2075 PSA 10 base copy. Now, let's conclude with a brief recap.

All this information begs the question “What do I do now?” First, as a buyer it is important to look at these trends and realize if one buys early there is a high chance the card will go down. As a seller, there are opportunities to potentially sell in the short term as not a lot of Wander PSA 10s are out there.

Wander is a special talent as seen through his success at every level of baseball. Franco will most likely be a big name in baseball for years to come, and if that is the case his rookie cards will almost certainly hold value. Which cards to chase is the question every collector, flipper, and investor should be asking themselves.

Contributor: Max Egenolf

Aaron Jones joins SCN Youtube Show

Packers star running back, Aaron Jones, joins Mike and Jesse on the Youtube show! They end up ripping a box of Playoff football and Aaron pulls himself! Then, they go to the LA Bullpen shop and speak with the owner (Mitch). Mike and Jesse see the legendary wax display that the LA Bullpen has stored. Make sure to watch the episode and enter into the most recent giveaway to win free cards.

Planning Your Wandermania Experience

With the release of 2022 Topps Series 1 and given the crazy sales above, Wandermania can officially be declared to be in full swing. It’s been simmering since well before his call-up, but with the release of his first official rookie, it’s reached a full rolling boil. Collectors targeted Wander as the next “big thing” before the ink dried in his first contract and the fervor intensified as he handled pitching easily at each minor league level. This means that a lot of Wander’s potential value is already baked into current pricing.

The big question then is how to collect this new phenom while trying to maximize both fun and potential profit. To help you out, we considered seven different strategies for investing today and evaluated them on both fun and financial gains with a 1-5 scale.

The Ostrich Strategy: Stay Away, Buy Nothing

This one is easy enough. On any thread with Wander cards, you see plenty of people explaining why he won’t make it as the next superstar. If you are one of those people or believe them, then just avoiding Wander cards and products that are priced higher because he is in them, might be the best strategy. You certainly won’t lose money by not buying cards.

Verdict: Fun 0, Financial 2.5

No losses, but no gains makes for a wash financially. While history says this might be a reasonable choice (insert whatever failed prospect of your choice), it’s certainly not a fun strategy.

The Vegas Strategy- Buy into Breaks

Breaks have a high level of chance built into them to begin with, but that fact gets magnified when there is a hot prospect out there. Random team breaks seem like an easy stay away except for the pure gamblers as the bulk of the value is tied up in one team (even the number 2 guy this year is on the Rays). Pick Your Team (PYT) breaks come with the problem of exorbitant prices for the aforementioned Rays. In most breaks, the Rays are going for 1/3 to 1/2 of the full value of the product being broken. The good news: with Vidal Brujan as a bonus and Wander in every insert set pretty much you won’t walk away empty-handed with this strategy. The bad news: basically, one needs to hit a fairly rare parallel to come out ahead.

Verdict: Fun 3, Financial 2

For some, the fun on this would rate a 5 and for others, it would rate a 0. It just depends on if you enjoy the chance aspect of breaks or not. Financially, breaks will do well for those that hit the monster parallels and autos. You won’t end up empty-handed as Topps slapped Wander on a ton of different cards, but the high entry cost makes this a swing for the fences or strikeout proposition.

Zag Strategy- Buy Someone Else

Wander’s the super-expensive filet mignon on the steakhouse menu, but there are always some lower-priced cuts that can end up even better. In this case, Jarren Duran and Vidal Brujan are the two most mentioned likely breakouts and both boast a moderate power/ blazing speed combination that plays well with collectors and the modern game. Outside of those two, the pickings are limited to pitchers (some high pedigree guys here) and older prospects. Jake Burger, Jake Meyers, and Drew Ellis had good seasons last year in AAA, but all three are on the older side for rookies. Still, with opportunity, any of these three could produce well like Jake Cronenworth (lots of Jakes) or Kyle Tucker and get a modicum of hobby love. None of those three really check the long-term hold boxes though. Quick tip for identifying decent rookies without knowing a thing: check to see if they have an SP variation. Topps does a pretty good job of identifying likely hobby targets and includes them in the SP checklist. Not 100% effective, but very few irrelevant guys get SPs.

The zag strategy can also be applied to breaks. With the Rays taking up almost half of the price for PYT breaks, picking another team can be profitable. Quick tip #2: pick up the Braves for cheap if you can as the Postseason and World Series relics have been selling well.

Verdict: Fun 4, Financial 3

It’s a lot of fun to be in on a big hobby star early. It’s also a lot of fun to follow your guys as the season plays out. Fun got docked a point because there is some sadness in not chasing Wander with everyone else. Financially, this strategy won’t break the bank so the risk is low, but there is a slight first to market premium currently for these players and the lack of other big rookies has collectors already focusing on these guys somewhat so prices are not as low as one might hope.

The New Style - Buy Parallels and Rare Cards

There is a very vocal subset of the collecting community that says base cards are dead. While reports of their demise are premature and overblown, the popularity of parallels cannot be understated. This is clear by the amazing prices that numbered Wander parallels have already sold for.

Is there room for growth though? Definitely. Rare flagship parallels of superstars are the domain of the big auction houses and can command sums equal to new cars. Currently, the bigger Wander parallels are trading for Hyundai money, but if he performs extremely well that could turn into Mercedes-level prices. High risk, but very high reward.

As an alternative, one could employ this strategy, but wait a month or so to see if prices drop as the first to market premiums dry up.

Verdict: Fun 5, Financial 3

This strategy likely has the biggest potential for large gains. It’s fun too! One gets to be discerning in choosing only the very top Wander cards and offers the opportunity to build a collection to make almost anyone jealous.

The Traditionalist- Buy Base Cards

Say what you will about base cards, they still sell and in large volumes. As of writing, Wander prices have settled in around $13 for base cards.

Much of the buying base cards strategy revolves around grading. Sought after rookie base card + gem mint grade=profit. That’s been the strategy for a good bit now. The elimination of cheap grading at PSA makes this much more difficult, but still doable. One could try to submit quickly to PSA in the hopes of having one of the first graded Wander rookies, but if you are reading this and haven’t sent them off yet you are probably already too late to take advantage of those prices. There are still some good alternatives with SGC offering great pricing and BGS having reopened lower tiers of grading. SGC is a great play here as they have fast turnaround times that can get the cards back in time for the start of the season assuming the labor kerfuffle is solved.

The What’s in the Box Strategy: Buying Sealed Wax

Really, this is two strategies. You can buy sealed wax to rip or to hold. Ripping right now yields negative returns on most boxes, but the big hits can make some rippers winners.

It’s the concept of buying sealed wax and holding it that is more interesting. 2020 and 2021 Topps Hobby boxes sell for between $120-150 which is close to the cost of a box of 2022 Series 1 Topps. 2018 and 2019 provide a lot of hope for advocates of this strategy. 2019 Topps Series 2 boxes go for almost $500 and 2018 Update is over $900 and pushing for four figures soon. The good thing about this strategy is that it makes one less dependent on Wander’s performance as other rookies could take off and it offers a fairly solid floor as it is unlikely to drop too far from current pricing.

Verdict (Ripping): Fun 5, Financial 2

Verdict (Holding): Fun 2, Financial 4

Ripping is fun, but more of a lottery ticket with Topps Series 1. Holding sealed wax is apparently fun for some (I don’t get it outside of value) but offers a great way to get in on the Wandermania with a good safety net.

The Planner: Pre-orders for the win

Less than two months ago, Jumbo cases of Topps Series 1 were selling for slightly under or right at $1000. Today those same cases run close to $1600. It’s too late to get Topps Series 1 discounted, but it is not too late to look at the release calendar and choose a few products you think will do well and buy-in before prices skyrocket. The big risk is still Wander underperforming, but by buying sealed products this is greatly mitigated by the presence of other rookies and veterans.

There’s even a great zag to be had with pre-orders. Targeting later season releases like Topps Series 2 and Update could end up being a stellar call if Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Spencer Torkleson, or Bobby Witt Jr. make appearances to go along with the Wander RC Debut and other insert cards.

Verdict: Fun 4.5, Financial 5

Getting in on pre-orders is key if you want to rip wax in the most cost-effective style. They are also reasonably fun as it gives you something to look forward to. I docked it a point for lack of instant gratification.

My Take

Whatever path you choose, the upcoming baseball season should be one for the books as collectors clamor after each new release in search of Wander. The great thing about the hobby is that there are myriad ways to enjoy it and Wandermania offers the full smorgasbord of choices.

Contributor: John Dudley

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PFF writes an article analyzing the top 200 players to hit free agency. This list includes star players such as Packers WR Davante Adams and Bucs WR Chris Godwin. The article mentions the strengths of each player and the contract they might be expecting. Overall, it is a great article for potentially guessing where the top free agents might land and what to expect if one of these players lands on your team.

Upcoming Events

· We will be in Atlanta for the Culture Collision Trade Show on Feb 25-27, so come out and say what’s up!

· The Mint Collective, a next-generation hobby event, will be in Las Vegas from March 25-27 and so will we! Mike and Jesse are serving as speakers for the event. There will be cards and conversations you don’t want to miss.

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The Sports Card Nonsense newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors and contributors. They are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation for purchases or of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any assets.