Nonsense Newsletter #17: Baseball Card Lockout, Atlanta Nonsense, and NBA Second Half Preview

Hey, and welcome to another week of nonsense.

We're back in Nashville after, dare I say, the best card show ever! Atlanta was a blast, and we loved seeing friends, meeting new ones, and making some great purchases at the Culture Collision Trade Show. This week we recap the weekend on the podcast and YouTube shows, Mike and Jesse ran a few giveaways for fans, and Chris from CardLadder joins the show to talk about the state of the market. Make sure you keep an eye on our social channels to avoid missing any exclusive content!

-Denton

Is it Time to Lock Down Baseball Cards for your Collection, or Lock the Sport out of your Watch List?

This week, the MLB and MLBPA failed to reach an agreement following the expiration of the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement. This means that we will see at least two series (roughly two weeks) of games canceled this season. But what does this mean for the major and minor league card markets?

Well, there are a few things we could see in the near future, but we know for certain that the season hype took a hit. Mike speculates that”“current rookies and young guys already in the MLB will suffer a little bit value-wise short ter”” due to the cancellations. It may be an excellent time to pick up the younger stars already in the pros as they might be affordable for longer.

But where will this transitioned hobby spending go?

Let’s start our speculation wyear'sg news from Topps. This year’s new product reveals 2022 Bowman University, a collegiate product focusing on NCAA players thanks to the recent Name, Image, and Likeness rules in college athletics. With NCAA games being aired to help fill the time slots previously allotted to the MLB, expect to see more eyes on college teams.

Eyes will also be on the prospecting market, with minor league games still scheduled to go on. The prospecting market in baseball remains strong, and expect it to stay bullish as, like college ball, minor league games will be aired more to fill the time.

Between the two lower levels of the sport, baseball fans will still have some hype and on-field performance to base purchasing decisions on, and this may be the perfect storm of events to grow the young market.

Overall, this is likely a temporary issue and will be resolved. Neither side wants to permanently cancel the whole season. In the long-term, the 2021-22 lockout shouldn’t cause any major waves. What is your plan for collecting and investing in current baseball players this season?

Contributor: Denton Pfeuffer

The guys recapped the Atlanta show on YouTube this week. Take a look at some exclusive interviews with popular collectors and shops, as well as watch Mike and Jesse negotiate for some of their favorite buys. Mike found and ripped a box of 2000 Flair Showcase baseball, the set that got him back into collecting cards.

NBA Second Half Preview

The Super’Bowl is over, and the NBA All-Star Weekend is behind us. That means ’t’s time for collectors to turn their attention to basketball, just as the league ramps up the competition for the playoffs. Many collectors ignore basketball until this time, which coincidently is when the first licensed cards with NBA uniforms come out. The delayed basketball release schedule has kept the NBA uniformed offerings to a minimum, but with the recent release of Hoops the floodgates are about to burst.

This preview gives collectors a quick glance at players and swomen'ses to watch in the hobby in the second half of the season. Hobby value is obviously tied to player success, but team success also plays a massive role in determining basketball card values. The teams have been divided into those out of the playoffs, those on the bubble, and those almost definitely in barring major injuries/changes. Not every team is highlighted here. Instead, a sampling of the more interesting players hobby-wise are highlighted. Shout out to 538.com for their excellent NBA Playoff Predictions.

Out of Contention Teams: Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Nebaseball'scks, Portland Trailblazers, Sacramento Kings, Washington Wizards

Players on teams that have little to play for can still have hobby value, but any major changes in value are likely relegated to young players. Veterans can put up numbers on bad teams, but unless they reach some lofty record-level numbers, hobbyists don’t care. On the other hand, rookies and young players on bad teams can gain hobby momentum by playing well down the stretch. Consequently, the players to watch on these teams are the young guys. It warra’ts watching veteran pricing though to watch for dips in prices to snag some bargains.

The Detroit Pistons are a great team to watch for collectors. Everyone knows Cade Cunningham and he is definitely worth watching, but Sadiq Bey and Killian Hays both deserve close attention. Hays is talented, but it hasn’t translated to numbers yet. His roadmap might be akin to Marcus Smart’s though so the numbers don’t capture his impact on games. Right now, he’s a hidden gem, but if his numbers start taking off, he could be in for a nice jump.

Bey has made large improvements in his second year and he's starting to get some love in the hobby. With Cunningham healthy, watch to see how he develops alongside the young superstar. Bey is going to have to settle into his role as the second scoring option which means he will likely need to improve the rest of his game to become a major name in the hobby. Keep an eye on how he meshes with Cunningham down the stretch.

Jalen Green on the Rockets has had a solid season, but the great news is that his numbers are trending upwards. Rookies either get tired and flag down the stretch or they figure things out and improve. Green seems like he’s in the latter camp which is good for his hobby outlook. Over the last 10 games, his three-point shooting has improved to 36% compared to right about 30% for the games before. While still far from the elite shooter range, this is the kind of improvement one likes to see in young players. Green still has some hype-based value baked into his cards based on draft position, but he’s getting overshadowed currently by others in his class and makes for an interesting play.

On the Bubble Teams: Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors

This category sees a lot of high-profile hobby guys that could be left on the outside looking in at the playoffs with only five of the nine teams here going to the playoffs. What this means for hobby value depends on where a player is in their career. Missing the playoffs is unlikely to hurt LaMelo Ball or Evan Mobley that much, but making it could cause a run on their cards especially if they win a series. Veteran players though can see their values diminished by missing the playoffs.

Kevin Durant’s Nets are the team with the most variance in possible outcomes. If everyone gets healthy and gels, they can win the title. Injuries and chemistry issues could send them home after the regular season. KD’s great, but missing the playoffs on a “super team” won’t do his prices any favors.

Ben Simmons is the real hobby question mark. His values jumped drastically on being traded with PSA 10 Prizm rookies going from $120-$150 to $200-$250. Questions around when Simmons would play quickly dropped these prices back down to $170 or so though. Simmons has the potential to see his cards rise sharply if he plays well on a team that can make it deep into the playoffs. The window to get in is likely best before he comes back, but Simmons comes with well-documented risk due to his shooting.

Trae Young and the Hawks are a dangerous, but so far disappointing young team. Trae Young is one of a very few players that are legitimately in contention for being the next superstar face of the league. Unfortunately, Atlanta has fallen into the habit of beating bad teams but losing handily to any decent ones. With the expectations high on the Hawks going into the season, missing the playoffs would be a major step back. Young’s values are low right now given his stats, but if his team can put it together, he could be due for a nice spike. Watch out to see if they can go on a run soon.

Teams Fighting for Seeding: Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Dever Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz

This is the group where the real action is. The MVP will almost certainly come from one of these teams and that race is one to watch as whoever wins will see a nice increase in prices. The odds currently favor Joel Embiid with Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan, Ja Morant, Steph Curry, and Devin Booker all with reasonable shots. One of these players will get on a hot streak and separate themselves from the pack. Embiid was the clear favorite even before getting the suddenly svelte James Harden, but he’s been close before until injuries took care of that.

Outside of the MVP race guys, the Heat and the Celtics are teams to concentrate on as they both have great chances at making the Finals. On the Heat, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Herro are all performing well as of late, but all three are sacrificing stats for wins. This is great for winning titles, but not the best for hobby value. It will take a Finals run for collectors to truly appreciate what they are doing.

Even more tantalizing is Kyle Lowry. He’s already a possible Hall of Famer and another title would all but lock that up. His prices are on the low side for a future Hall of Famer currently with Topps PSA 10 rookies well under $100 if you can find one (pop of only 34). Raw versions are easily available under $10 and given how few have been graded it is possible to find good condition copies for the price of a fast-food extra value meal.

The Celtics seem like they’ve got a veteran core, but it is easy to forget just how young they are. Jayson Tatum just turned 24 yesterday and Jaylen Brown’s only 25. Tatum’s already one of a very few players that can be the number one option on a championship team. His pricing has been relatively flat all season with pricing for his PSA 10 RC moving slowly around $200-250 as collectors are waiting for him to make good on his potential with a trip to the Finals. Both players are attractive pickups if you think the Celtics will make the Finals.

These are just a few of the players we are watching closely. What or who are you looking out for in the rest of the NBA season? Let us know in the comments below or on our socials.

Contributor: John Dudley

Links to Socials

Need More Nonsense?

The Fan Favorite, Fanatics

The guys talked with Josh Luber, head of Fanatics’ card initiative, on the podcast a few months back regarding Fanatics’ plan in the trading card space, including their plan with distribution going forward. Since then, Fanatics has acquired Topps and reaffirmed their commitment to keeping hobby shops open as part of their strategy. Read more about his speaking session at the Topps Industry Conference here.

The Card Collecting Coach

Lots of us have that special person in our lives that influenced us as we grew up. For many of the players and alumni at Marist College in New York, that person is head women’s basketball coach Brian Giorgis. The decorated coach has led Marist to 11 MAAC Tournament championships since taking over in 2002 as head coach. What makes him so special? Coach Giorgis is a big collector of cards and memorabilia, which he gifts his former players to celebrate when they have kids. Read more about the special coach and his unique gifts here.

A Legendary Trend

The ticket market has been flourishing as of late. Debut tickets, championship tickets, and milestone tickets for some of the best players in history continue to trend upward, as shown by these impressive sales on Heritage Auctions. Jackie Robinson, one of baseball’s most recognizable names, had his MLB debut in 1947 and the ticket sold for a sports ticket record $480,000, accompanied by a 1984 debut stub of His Airness that fetched $468,000.

Upcoming Events

Next week, on Tuesday the 8th, Mike and Jesse have huge news to drop! Make sure you tune into the podcast to find out more.

The Mint Collective, a next-generation hobby event, will be in Las Vegas from March 25-27 and so will we! Mike and Jesse have been asked to speak, so expect tons of nonsense to take center stage. There will be cards and conversations you don’t want to miss.

The Sports Card Nonsense newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors and contributors. They are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation for purchases or of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any assets.