Nonsense Newsletter #18: MVP Card Race, zerocool Nonsense, and Some Auction Fact or Fiction
Sponsored by SGC Cards gosgc.com
Welcome back to another week of nonsense!
It was a huge week on the podcast! Mike and Jesse were joined by Josh Luber, the CVO of Fanatics and he announced the launch of zerocool (you can watch the whole thing below)! zerocool is the first trading card company dedicated to culture and non-sport related cards, and the guys got to rip some wax on the Youtube show of the new VeeFriends cards! We’ll be following them as they launch their next products, which they say could be politicians, musicians, actors, and more! That is just some of the nonsense happening, but we are also looking at the MVP race and some auction fact or fiction.
-Max
The NBA playoff race is heating up and so is the competition to be the MVP. We have already seen some stellar performances post ASG from the NBA’s elite, including Lebron James going for 56 to beat the Warriors, Jayson Tatum erupting for 54, Nikola Jokic recording his 75th career triple-double! The MVP race is always interesting because more often than not, it bumps a player's card value higher and impacts their personal legacy. Last year, the Nuggets Nikola Jokic won the MVP award and saw a nice bump in his Prizm PSA 10 base card prices. On May 23rd, 2021 his card sold for $959, and on June 7th (the day before the MVP was announced) the same card sold for $1,025 (Cardladder). Now that we have established why winning MVP matters, let’s break down MVPs player cards in the past and their team success.
So, one of the most interesting things about the person who wins MVP, is that it is largely correlated to their team’s success. This means that whoever wins MVP usually has a team that is a contender to win the NBA finals.
In other words, if you buy cards of the MVP winner, there is a higher probability it could increase in price again from them winning the championship or making a playoff run.
Let's take a look at the MVPs from the past and what their team’s seeding for the playoffs was.
2021- Jokic (Nuggets 3 seed) 2016- Curry (Warriors 1 seed)
2020- Giannis (Bucks 1 seed) 2015- Curry (Warriors 1 seed)
2019- Giannis (Bucks 1 seed) 2014- Durant (Thunder 2 seed)
2018- Harden (Rockets 1 seed) 2013- Lebron (Heat 1 seed)
2017- Wesbrook (Thunder 6 seed) 2012- Lebron (Heat 2 seed)
With the exception of the 2017 Thunders with Russell, all of these teams won the title or had realistic chances to win. And ultimately, being named MVP and locking in the final championship is a remarkable feat that can not only help solidify a player's legacy but also elevate their cards to legendary status.
So now it's time to dive into the current candidates for MVP this year.
NBA.com releases a weekly article called “The KIA MVP Ladder”, we will be using this to look at who the writers think the top 5 MVP candidates are. Then we list the stats of each player and a card to watch.
Player: Nikola Jokic
Team and Record: Nuggets, 39-26
Stats: 26/10/8 (points/rebounds/assists)
Card to watch: Raw Prizm rookie, currently at $115
Case for MVP: His numbers are better than last year when he won MVP
Case against MVP: Nuggets are currently 6th in the West
Player: Joel Embiid
Team and Record: 76ers, 40-24
Stats: 30/11/4 (points/rebounds/assists)
Card to watch: Select Concourse PSA 10 rookie, currently $220
Case for MVP: Leading league in scoring and team potential 1 seed
Case against MVP: Missed 12 games already so far and has an injury history
Player: Giannis Antetokoumpo
Team and Record: Bucks, 41-25
Stats: 29/11/6 (points/rebounds/assists)
Card to watch: Hoops rookie PSA 10, currently $500
Case for MVP: Leading the league in player efficiency rating (PER)
Case against MVP: Team has been somewhat underwhelming since winning the championship.
Player: Ja Morant
Team and Record: Grizzlies, 45-22
Stats: 27/6/7 (points/rebounds/assists)
Card to watch: Optic holo rookie, currently $250
Case for MVP: Arguably most exciting player in the league now
Case against MVP: Stats are not better than any of the guys above him
Player: Demar Derozan
Team and Record: Bulls, 39-26
Stats: 28/5/5 (points/rebounds/assists)
Card to watch: Toppsflagship rookie, currently $50
Case for MVP: Had 8 straight 35 point games
Case against MVP: Has dropped off significantly since All-Star break
All of these players are supreme talents and are having incredible seasons. We know there will be buying and selling opportunities here, but especially if their teams make noise in the playoffs. If Giannis wins it will be his 3rd MVP which would put him in elite company. If Jokic wins, it will be his second MVP in a row which puts him on a shortlist of 20 players who have accomplished this. All 20 are either upper echelon HOFs or will be first-ballot inductees when they retire. Wrapping up, if any of these players win MVP it will change their legacy as a player and their card prices should reflect that.
Contributor: Max Egenolf
First zerocool box break and more!
On this week’s YouTube show, Mike and Jesse rip a brand new box of zerocool’s VeeFriends! Take an exclusive look at what could be a hobby-altering brand of cards! Make sure to check out the cards and follow, like, and subscribe! They are always posting giveaways so make sure to join!
And, let us know what you think about the new cards.
Welcome to Fact or Fiction where conventional hobby wisdom is put to the test. There are a lot of hard and fast rules that get bandied about in the hobby. There is also a lot of common advice that pops up weekly on the excellent Sports Card Nonsense Facebook group (go join if you haven’t already it’s a great place). The seasoned collector in me often spouts these rules or advice as gospel truths, but to be honest I’m working solely on experience and observation. Both very useful things, but things that don’t always stand up to empirical tests. Consequently, the Fact or Fiction series of articles will put the collected wisdom of the hobby to the test. This week we turn to the advice inevitably given any time someone is disappointed in an auction sale.
Hobby Wisdom: Buy it Now listings or Best Offers (both combined and abbreviated BINs for the duration) are superior to auctions as auctions won’t sell for as much.
I see this posted multiple times a week and probably have said something along the same lines whenever someone posts an eBay auction that ends with a price lower than recent comps. However, when someone posts advice like this there is often a brave soul or two who favor auctions that posts an auction with an extremely high price. Both sides bicker, but ultimately will agree on the minor point that auctions have more variance in prices. But which side is right on using auctions or not?
What we really want to know is if all things are equal is an auction or BIN going to sell for more. Unfortunately, a lot of things go into determining the final sale price of an item. The wording of a listing, the timing, the seller’s feedback, the picture, and the actual card itself all play huge roles in the realization of the final price.
I used a system of transaction matching where I paired up an auction sale with a BIN with similar characteristics. Each pair of items ended within a day of each other. I made sure that the pictures and listings were similar. In particular, the listing had to have the player’s name spelled correctly, the set, and the card number all specified. I excluded all-new or low feedback sellers. I did not go so far as to match up 25,000 feedback sellers with other high feedback sellers, but all the sales included come from sellers with a healthy feedback record. I also considered the timing of the auction sales by classifying some as peak sale times (6 p.m. -12 p.m. Eastern) and further noted if the sale was on a weekend or not.
The cards included were chosen to get a variety of sports and to provide enough sales volume (well over 100 sales represented here). In order to keep any one card from dominating too much and exerting too much influence on the results, cards with a value of roughly $20-$100 were selected. In some cases, this meant raw copies were selected and for others, I used graded versions. The cards used were 2018 Topps Update Juan Soto in PSA 9 grade, 2019 Fernando Tatis Topps Chrome in PSA 9 grade, 2019 Ja Morant Prizm raw, 2020 Justin Herbert Prizm raw, 2020 Joe Burrow Prizm raw, 2020 LaMelo Ball Prizm raw, 2020 Topps Chrome Luis Robert in PSA 10 grade, and 2021 Mac Jones Donruss raw.
The results are shown below in Figure 1. Overall, auctions sold for 95% of the value of BINs. Close, but 5% is nothing to sneeze at. So, auctions win. Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
When the timing of the auction is factored in the difference vanishes. The difference between auctions sold at peak times and BINs is so small the difference is statistically insignificant. Auctions sold at times other than peak times are the clear loser selling for only 85% of BINs value. So, it’s a tie, I guess. Again, let’s not put the cart before the horse.
When you account for whether the auction occurred on the weekend or weekday along with peak times, auctions truly shine. Weekend peak time auction sales sold for 108% of the value of similar BIN sales. The fact that both day and timing matter is not that shocking, but the fact that well-scheduled auctions outperform BINs was a bit of a surprise.
A bigger surprise to me was that the BINs had a larger standard deviation than their auction counterparts when looking at auctions at peak times. The fact that auctions have more variation in prices is something that is widely agreed upon in the hobby, but even that bit of hobby wisdom fails when timing is factored in.
Figure 1: Auction vs. BIN Sales as a Percentage
One caveat, the cards here are reasonably popular and likely to be searched for constantly. It is quite possible that BINs would have an advantage with less popular cards. Another caveat is that the definition of peak time is broad here. Narrowing down the definition of peak time might actually give auctions more of an advantage.
What do we make of this? There are plenty of reasons to choose either an auction or a BIN listing, but maybe potential sale price shouldn’t be as much of a factor in the decision. If timing is considered, auctions can even possibly provide an advantage.
Clever buyers might want to check out auctions ending on weekdays and non-peak hours to try to snag some deals. For example, if a card is selling for $100 as a BIN according to the data here its average weekend peak auction price would be $108 compared to $85 for non-peak weekday auctions. That’s over a 20% discount just from paying attention to auction timing and shopping during non-peak hours.
Findings: Auctions and BINs on average perform identically when auctions are held in the evenings. Auctions that end at times other than at peak perform substantially worse. Auctions at peak times on the weekend perform better than BINs.
This particular bit of hobby wisdom proves more complex than simply being true or not. Like many things in life, the actual answer as to which performs better is nuanced and dependent on myriad factors. Hopefully, being aware of how listing timing affects prices can help collectors make the best decision between auctions and BINs for themselves.
Contributor: John Dudley
Need More Nonsense?
Mickey Mantle card NFT sells for $471K!
Recently, a Mickey Mantle sports card NFT just sold for roughly $471K! It is part of the Topps Timeless NFT project. Earlier this year, a Lou Gerhig NFT from the same project sold for $70,000!
Topps recently released the second year of Topps Chrome Formula 1! Make sure to look at the checklist so you know who to chase! The first year saw cases go from $8K to $35K, will these boxes be as successful?
10 Most Valuable baseball cards from the 90's!
Bleacher Report looks at the top baseball cards and designs from the 90’s! Make sure to check it out and see if anyone on the list is worth buying and selling!
Upcoming Events
The Mint Collective, a next-generation hobby event, will be in Las Vegas from March 25-27 and so will we! Mike and Jesse are serving as speakers for the event. There will be cards and conversations you don’t want to miss.
The Sports Card Nonsense newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors and contributors. They are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation for purchases or of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any assets.