Nonsense Newsletter #19: Baseball is Back, Hockey Debuts in the Newsletter, and The Guys Rip Mosaic on YouTube
Sponsored by SGC Cards gosgc.com
Welcome to the Sports Card Nonsense Newsletter! It's been a busy sports week with MLB free agency finally opened and the start of March Madness. The guys have been busy too and are keeping you covered on YouTube and on the Podcast as always. Be sure to check out the YouTube show for a first look at Panini Mosaic.
-John
It’s okay to say the word.
Really, it is.
Nothing will happen.
The sky will not fall.
You won’t lose all your trading-card cred.
No one will chuckle at you, nor will they point or snicker.
I promise.
C’mon now.
You can do it.
Repeat after me.
H-O-C-K-E-Y.
Hockey.
You did it.
Now, for those of you who uttered this word for the first time right here, congrats, you’re on your way down a new and exciting path in sports cards collecting.
For the rest of you, those who simply spent years pretending the word didn’t exist in the hobby at all, it’s time to start singing a different tune.
The truth is, hockey cards are sliding their way into the mainstream of the hobby, and although it will undoubtedly never take its place atop the hobby hierarchy, it’s a niche that deserves some attention, whether you can ice skate or not, and whether you’re a collector or more of a flipper. It doesn’t matter.
According to cardladder.com's index data, hockey cards have seen a steady 3.25% rate of growth over the past six months, with that number expected to rise as the postseason draws closer and the chase for the Stanley Cup heats up.
Names such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and others may not be household names in the United States, but they are modern-day superstars in the game and true heavyweights in the hobby.
McDavid, arguably the best hockey talent of his generation, has his PSA 10 2015 Upper Deck Rookie valued at approximately $3,170 with a pop of only 2,238.
Wayne Gretzky, more of a household name, for sure, saw his 1979 O’Pee Chee rookie card in a PSA 10 (albeit with a pop of 2) sold for $3.75M back in May of 2021, with the Topps version of the same card selling for $720,000 in Dec. 2021.
When you compare these figures with the values of the same card just a few short years ago, you can see hockey can more than hold its own against basketball, baseball, and football.
For example, that identical McDavid’s Upper Deck Young Guns rookie in a PSA 10 went for just north of $440 back in Jan. 2020, while the 1979 Gretzky Topps in a PSA 8 (something a little more realistic for most collectors) went from $1,300 to $4,600 in that same time frame, getting as high as $6,500 along the way.
Now, before you argue the entire hobby is up as a rule, I have to say you’re right. Still, these numbers rival those of baseball, football and even basketball cards.
And McDavid and Gretzky, these are just a couple examples of the potential of the hockey market, despite the relatively small following in relation to say, NBA basketball.
And, like other markets, there are a plethora of younger stars set to soar in the game and in the hobby.
New Jersey Devils standout, Jack Hughes (2019 Upper Deck #201) came into the NHL with as much hype as any rookie since McDavid. After struggling his rookie campaign, the Devils’ center has turned it around in his second season both on the ice and in the hobby.
His PSA 10 2019 Upper Deck #201 is up to $339 according to the latest cardladder.com numbers after dipping to as low as $133 back in May of 2020.
Hughes’155% increase is solid regardless of the sport, and keen collectors should take note of this trend.
Is this the point we’re going to look back to two years from now and ask ourselves why we weren’t scooping up Hughes PSA 10s then when they were more affordable?
I’m from Detroit, Michigan, so having a passion for hockey is literally a requirement of living in the area. That said, I can’t skate a lick, not even a little bit.
Watching me put on the skates alone is probably worthy of a viral TikTok video!
That said, I love the sport and truly enjoy the hockey hobby even more, not to mention I have learned over the years those who are in the hobby and love hockey as well — they’re a wonderful, knowledgeable, loyal and passionate group.
And the hobby needs as many of these folks as possible.
So I encourage all of you, please take a few minutes and give hockey a chance. I firmly believe you’ll come to love it as much as I do, and you just may make a few dollars in the process.
Contributor: John McTaggart
The guys are continuing the giving spirit this week. They rip a box of Mosaic and talk through it live. They check out the Philly show courtesy of Ryan with Breakout Cards, Goldin reveals some amazing items on auction, and Man on the Street makes an appearance.
2022 Baseball Preview Part 1: The American League
The sky is no longer falling. The labor issues have been settled and baseball is back. That means it’s time for collectors to start speculating over what players will hit it big this year and what players will flame out.
Last year in Spring Training many noticed that Vladimir Guerrero Jr, slimmed down, but those paying attention to the numbers also noticed his change in launch angle. Those watching Spring Training jumped on the Vladito bandwagon before his MVP-caliber season even started. Spring Training is the perfect time to focus on some players that you think are going to have better than expected seasons.
This space normally takes a more numbers-centric approach to the hobby. In light of that, in this preview, a significant number is highlighted for a player worth watching in Spring Training and the start of the season. These aren’t necessarily the best players on each team, but ones who are poised to either take a big jump or a big dip in the hobby based on their performance this year.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles:
5.7. That’s Cedric Mullins bWAR last year (Wins Above Replacement Player). It’s been a while since the Orioles have been pertinent to collectors, but they might be on the path to relevancy with Cedric Mullins. Mullins quietly took a big leap forward and had a great age-26 season finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting. Many baseball collectors are fully on board with the metrics revolution and a WAR north of 5 causes people to take notice. Another season like 2021 and Mullins will move out of the bargain box and into display cases.
Boston Red Sox:
$45 is what you’ll pay on average for a Jarren Duran Topps Series 1 SP RC. Not cheap, but substantially lower than the $330 and up you’ll pay for a Wander Franco SP from the same set. Duran is one of the “other” rookies you can find so far in 2022 products. He struggled in his initial call-up last year but displayed a coveted mix of speed and power in AAA last year. He has 20/20 potential easily but could take a crack at a 30/30 year. If he hits that level, his rookie cards will no longer be consolation prizes in the Wander lottery.
New York Yankees:
Aaron Judge played 148 games last year and reminded everyone what he can do when healthy. A top 5 MVP finish is easily repeatable based on talent, but it is the health that merits watching. No reason to expect problems, but if fully healthy, a Yankee in the MVP race is hobby catnip. His cards aren’t cheap, but there is plenty of room to grow if he starts stringing together full healthy seasons.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Tyler Glasnow saw his short-lived reign as the ace of the Rays ended by injuries and rule changes. Shane Baz looks ready to step into that role with a fastball that averages 97 mph. The Rays are a bit unorthodox in how they use pitchers so it will be interesting to see how they nurture Baz along. He’s got the stuff and the pedigree to be a number one starter, but it remains to be seen if he gets enough innings to be relevant. Spring Training will give us a glimpse of how they plan to use him. The more he looks like a traditional starter the greater his hobby value. He’s a strikeout dominant pitcher which collectors look for in pitchers.
Toronto Blue Jays:
.242 is not a batting average that gets collectors excited. Especially for a catcher without a full-time starting job, but Alejandro Kirk is an interesting hitter that thrives on contact. The 23-year-old isn’t big on power but has the ability to lead the league in batting average and walks almost as much as he strikes out. His batting average wasn’t great last year but his previous two years in the minors saw him hit .347 and .375. Catchers have a hard time capturing the attention of hobbyists, but once they do, they are often fan favorites. Kirk’s bat will give him a shot, but he’s got a lot of competition both on the roster and in the minors. Check to see how much playing time he gets in Spring Training and keep watching for him to be traded. He could see a bump if he lands somewhere as the clear starter.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox:
The White Sox have a solid lineup, but much of their success will rely on how Eloy Jimenez bounces back. He came back strong from injury at first, but his production quickly declined. After Aug 15th, he had only 4 multi-hit games. His production dropped across the board during this time. He’s young and has the power potential to lead the league in home runs, but the late season swoon post-injury is concerning. If he looks sharp in Spring Training, the White Sox and his cards could be in for a great season.
Cleveland Guardians:
9%. Tyler Freeman struck out in only 9% of his at bats in his first three years in the minors. He should get a good shot at starting this year. Being only 22, he is the right age for hobbyists to pay attention to. Where he’s been lacking is power. If he shows any increased power during Spring Training, his cards could have a meteoric rise.
Detroit Tigers:
Akil Baddoo was a hobby darling briefly last year, coming out of seemingly nowhere to dominate the first couple of weeks of the season, but it was over almost before it started. In August, his OPS for the month was an abysmal .480. The great news is that he rebounded with a solid if unspectacular September upping his OPS to .735 for the month. That’s not going to cause a run on his cards, but he’s young and has shown that he can be a hobby relevant player. He merits monitoring in Spring Training to see if he looks settled in or if he looks overmatched like he did in August.
Kansas City Royals:
I originally wrote about the exciting M.J. Melendez, but the news that Bobby Witt Jr. is going to have a chance to start blew that up. Witt torched minor league pitching last year with 33 home runs, but it is his speed that moves him from potential All Star to potential face of the league. Witt had 29 stolen bases to go with that power explosion last year. With a little more development he could become the 5th 40/40 guy in MLB history and the 1st to not be attached to PED use. His cards are already expensive, but there still might be some time to get in on them before he officially becomes the starter. The Royals all of a sudden are one of the more interesting teams to watch from a hobby standpoint.
Minnesota Twins:
Luis Arraez was a dark horse pick to win the AL batting title last year due to his previous work and tutelage under the legendary Rod Carew. Instead, he finished with a respectable, but disappointing .292 average. That’s not going to cut it for a player with limited power potential. His versatility in the field and solid contact should keep him in the majors for years to come, but he has to be near the top of the league in hits and average for collectors to care. He had a scorching June and July hitting .343 in those months. With a fast start and some consistency, he’s a dark horse candidate again this year for the batting title.
AL West:
Houston Astros:
We don’t talk about Kyle Tucker. Or at least not near as much as we should. At 24, he put together a stellar season. The great news is that unlike most youngsters instead of getting tired he got better as the year progressed. At the All-Star break, he had a very good OPS of .834. By the end of the season, he improved that mark to .917. A full season of production like his second half and Tucker will be in the MVP hunt and collectors who got in on the Kyle Tucker train early will reap the benefits.
Los Angeles Angels:
Jo Adell was a consensus top-10 prospect heading into 2021 but failed to live up to the hype both offensively and defensively in Spring Training and spent most of the year in the minors. The Angels and collectors who went in big on him need him to turn it around in 2022. The good news is that he hit 23 home runs in the minors last year and looked like a potential All-Star. He didn’t wow anyone in his late-season callup, but he’s got the hype and pedigree that makes cards move quickly if the production manifests in the majors.
Oakland Athletics:
The A’s ownership doesn’t seem too interested in on-field production and hobbyists don’t seem that interested in A’s players either after the Olson and Chapman trades. They do have some interesting young talent now with a pair of former Braves being the most intriguing. Christian Pache is more likely to play immediately, but Shea Langeliers could fill in and attempt to replace a good bit of Olson’s production having hit 22 home runs last year across AA and AAA. Those are big shoes to fill, but Langeliers should benefit from a clearer path to the majors with the A’s than with the crowded Braves lineup. Tip: look for chances to snag his cards on the cheap as Braves fans unload them.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners have a lot of intriguing young talent, but all eyes will be on Jared Kelenic. 2021 was considered a weak rookie class for the hobby (unfairly IMO). Kelenic’s prices have been fueled by his strong late-season performance. The question going into the season is if he’s a star or if collectors are just being overly optimistic and grabbing onto any 2021 guy with a modicum of potential. He had a .216 BABIP (batting average for ball in play) which ranked 67th out of 69 rookies. A low BABIP is sometimes a sign of a player that just got unlucky, but in Kelenic’s case it is largely the product of too many pop flies and grounders. He’s always shown decent plate discipline so most of his improvement will need to come from lowering the number of pop flies and weak grounders.
Texas Rangers:
The Rangers went from irrelevant to must-watch, at least at the start of the season, through some big signings. Corey Seager is at 21.3 bWAR going into this season, which is right below a HOF pace. He needs a big year to get back on track and to get the Rangers in contention. He’s at the age where he can’t afford anything but a solidly above-average season without moving from potential HOF player to simply a fan favorite. There’s no shame in being the latter, but collectors only pay big bucks for HOF players in baseball with a few notable exceptions.
To wrap up:
There are many more players than these worth watching in Spring Training. Let us know who you are looking forward to seeing in the comments section. Stay tuned for next week when we’ll tackle the National League.
Contributor: John Dudley
Need More Nonsense?
If you’re in the market for a T206 Honus Wagner (and, let’s be honest, who isn’t, right?) you’re going to get your chance thanks to Robert Edwards Auctions. The iconic baseball card, graded PSA Authentic, is part of REA’s spring catalog auction, which kicks off April 8, 2022, and runs through April 24, 2022. According to REA, they believe the card can exceed the $1.5 million mark so have your checkbook ready.
Drake Drops in Big for Flawless
Popstar, Drake, says via Instagram he dropped $200,000 on 2021 Panini Flawless boxes recently, which translates to 14 boxes of the $15,000 per box (10 cards in each box) product in search of the elusive Triple NBA logo man card. There are five iterations of the 1/1 Logoman in this year’s Flawless basketball.
Undervalued Moses Malone Hits New Highs
Moses Malone is often called underrated, but his rookie card got plenty of attention recently at auction with PWCC. The PSA 10 1975 Topps was certified by PWCC as having superior eye appeal and went for $102,000.
Upcoming Events
The Mint Collective, a next generation hobby event, will be in Las Vegas from March 25-27 and so will we! Mike and Jesse are serving as speakers for the event. There will be cards and conversations you don’t want to miss.
Jason Flynn from Soccer Cards United will join us to talk soccer cards in 2 weeks.
Make sure you follow our social media as we plan on running more giveaways!
The Sports Card Nonsense newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors and contributors. They are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation for purchases or of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any assets.