Nonsense Newsletter #30: John D. tells us about some MLB slow-starters finally coming around, John M. gets on a soapbox about the hobby, and Mike and Jessie rip some Phoenix football
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Another exciting week concludes here at SCN, and with the NBA Finals underway, hockey down to the final four, and the MLB season in full swing, we take a look at guys in the MLB finally rounding into form (I’m looking at you, Bo Bichette)! Plus, a little reality check for the hobby, and Jessie and Mike rip Phoenix football as part of Capital Nonsense. So, let’s go!
Contributor: John McTaggart
I originally sat down this morning to write this week’s column about Jaylen Brown.
The Celtics superstar is still, in my opinion, way undervalued (his base 2016 Prizm rookie in a PSA 10 is valued at about $134) for a player of his caliber, on that team, with this kind of success.
But, however, most of you probably know this already because you wouldn’t be reading this column unless you were a pretty hardcore trading card enthusiast.
So writing something like this would be kinda insulting wouldn’t it?
Instead, I’m going to write about something many of us, myself included, have lost sight of, particularly in the state the hobby is in right now.
A state where everything is about return on investment, about flipping cards or getting that high grade so I can increase my profits.
A state where seemingly every day I see another video on social media or read a post on Facebook about a breaker trying to pull a fast one, or someone complaining about another person not paying for cards they won on EBay, or a seller suddenly “losing” a card they just sold for less than market value.
A state where a host of YouTube personalities tote the wonderful hustle that is the sports card business, taking us to shows all over the country, sifting through dollar boxes to find amazing hidden gems, shrewdly negotiating with dealers and clients over high-end cards and wowing us with the pure dollar amounts at stake in every deal.
It’s transformed the hobby into a worldwide used-car lot where cards are no longer cards of our favorite players, but rather commodities known for value alone.
And then there’s my nephew, six-years old, a Trae Young and Devin Booker fanatic.
I got into the hobby when I was very young, and into the business, over thirty years ago with my brother.
And he’s passed his love for the hobby on to my nephews, who, quite frankly, could care less about the value of a Trae Young Prizm Silver or a Devin Booker PSA 10.
In fact, when he gets a card of either of those players to add to his collection, he admires it for a while, showing it off to me and others, then it goes either on his wall in his bedroom, or in a binder he started a while back.
If the corner is dinged, no problem.
If there’s a print line, who cares?
If the centering is terrible — it doesn’t matter.
He just loves to add another card to the collection, to the ever-growing mosaic on his wall, or slide it nicely into the next open slot in the binder page.
Young and Booker are his favorite players (with Cade Cunningham gaining momentum, I should add) and that’s his perspective on the hobby — and it’s a good one.
In fact, it’s the proper one.
Now, I’m not an idiot here, nor am I suggesting we start pinning National Treasures 1-of-1’s to our wall, but I am suggesting we all take a moment to catch our breath and remember why we got into this hobby to begin with.
For most of us, it wasn’t because we wanted to retire off of our card collection — it was because we loved a particular team, or player, or sport, and those little pieces of cardboard brought us that much closer to being a part of the big leagues.
Most of the ills I have seen in the hobby stem from slick-talking, charismatic, shady people swooping in like vultures trying to capitalize on the upward trend in the game and fresh meat in the hobby.
And believe it or not, this isn’t a recent phenomenon, either.
Way back in the late 80s, early 90s the same thing was going on, but there wasn’t social media to propel these individuals profile. There weren’t breakers acting like fools with every card pulled, as if it was the Holy Grail of trading cards, while scantily dressed women parade around in the background.
But truthfully, this will fade, and along with it, the slick-talkers and shady personalities will as well.
We’re starting to see it already.
The market is down as a rule, and making money is tougher than it was not that long ago. It takes more work to get less profit — and that’s okay.
Most of the shady characters share one common trait — they don’t want to work hard.
So when the hobby starts heading in that direction, they head in the other.
Believe me, there are plenty of folks win the hobby who love the process way more than the profit margins, and work very hard to keep the hobby alive and headed in the right direction.
The business of the hobby will be just fine.
The heartbeat of the hobby, still, is about taping cards to the wall and filling binders with our favorite team, player or sport.
Let’s not ever forget that.
Contributor: John Dudley
With the baseball season over a quarter of the way over, it is time to check in to see which players that got off to a slow start are starting to heat up. Players who get off to bad starts can be a great source of hobby bargains. Last year, Juan Soto started slowly and his cards dipped before he went on a tear and almost won the MVP award.
As many collectors only look at total stats, identifying players that are heating up gives the savvy collector an advantage as many will not notice the improvement until stats like batting average improve sufficiently.
Here are five guys that have broken out of their April funks and had great ends to May. I excluded Julio Rodriguez from this list as it is clear from his pricing that collectors are very aware of his improved performance.
1. Bo Bichette was downright awful in April hitting just .213 with only two home runs. He’s turned it around in the last 30 days though where he has hit .296 during that span with five home runs, including hitting almost .500 with four home runs in the last two weeks.
Bichette’s PSA 10 2020 Topps Chrome RC was going for a bit over $40 at the start of the season, but recently dropped as low as $20. Copies can still be had for under $30
2. Gerrit Cole had an ERA close to seven after his first three starts of the year. While he is still having the occasional rough outing, he’s back to form and dominating most outings. His ERA has returned to a more palatable 3.21 and his strikeout rate per nine innings for May is up to 12 from 10 in April. Both are good, but the May numbers are more in line with the Cy Young contender performance expected of Cole.
His PSA 10 2013 Topps Update RC is selling for $35-$40 which is down from $50-$60 to start the season.
3. Luis Robert was abysmal to start the season hitting just .192 in April. As cold as he was in April, he has been just as hot in May despite a recent very brief trip to the IL. He is hitting .342 for the month with an .OPS of .837 compared to just .612 for April. It would be nice if he could get his power numbers up a bit in June though.
Robert’s PSA 10 2020 Topps Chrome RC was selling for $40 to $50 before the season started but recent sales are in the low $30 range.
4. Bryce Harper’s reign as the NL MVP got off to a decent, but slow for his standards, start with a slash line of .253/.304/.470. Fine for an average player, but not for an MVP. His May has been much more on point with an MVP-worthy slash line of .368/.404/.724 for the month.
Harper’s rookie cards can be confusing which can add to volatility in the market for his cards. The “screaming” version of his PSA 10 2012 Topps RC is trading for around $100 currently but was closer to $130-$140 before the season with a sale of over $180 right before the season began.
5. Mookie Betts’ slow start got overlooked as he plays on a stacked team that is performing well, but he hit just .230 in April with three home runs. He has obliterated those marks in May with 12 home runs and a hefty .342 average for the month.
Betts’ PSA 10 2012 Topps Update RC is selling for $220 compared to $250-$280 prior to the season.
Wrap Up
Quite a few other players have started to heat up as well. Watching to see which previously cold players are starting to catch fire is a great way to snag some bargains. Nothing really changed about Bo Bichette or Bryce Harper during their slow starts, but the short decline in production sent their cards tumbling in price. These bargains won’t last long (some upward movement already) as collectors catch on to the improved performances of the guys on this list but paying attention to trends like this is a great way to save big on cards you want. What other players have you noticed playing better after a slow start? Let me know in the comments
Quick Hits
Grading News- CSG announced price increases for their grading services. The increase does not take effect until July 5th so there is time to get in orders under the old pricing scale. Bulk rates will jump to $15 a card from $12 and Economy sees a $5 increase to $25. The price increase comes with CSG doing well in the grading volume competition. It will be interesting to track the impact the price increase has on that race.
Vintage-Who would’ve thought that back in 1967 when you purchased milk you’d end up with a trading card collectible! It’s true. Read more about the milk carton cards and the Irvingdale Braves by clicking here.
Sports Collector’s Daily takes a great look at the career of Hall of Famer Minnie Minoso through a series of nine cards. Be sure to check the article out here.
NFT News- Many fans bemoan the loss of paper tickets. They made cheap keepsakes and have a long history in the collectibles world. One solution is issuing commemorative NFT tickets. That idea and others imagining NFTs with real-world functionality are discussed in the Indiana Business Journal.
New Release Spotlight- This week sees the release of 2021 NFL Panini Prizm Hobby Boxes. Boxes on average will yield 4 Silver Prizms, 10 Numbered Prizms, and 2 autographed cards. Rare inserts include the gorgeous Color Blasts and the destined to be expensive and divisive Manga inserts. Boxes aren’t cheap with prices between $1300 and $1600 but the rookie class is strong.
More Nonesense
If you were around for the 1992-93 NBA season, then you’re undoubtedly a fan of Stadium Club’s Beam Team inserts from that season. The set featured a plethora of would-be Hall of Famers including Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal, among others. Read more about this classic and highly collectible insert by clicking here
Topps Released its coveted checklist for 2022 Topps Series 2 baseball. Take a look at the complete list by clicking here.
The Sports Card Nonsense newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors and contributors. They are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation for purchases or of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any assets.