Nonsense Newsletter No. 125: The RB Dilemma, Auction House = Fun Times, pre-war pricing records being set and more!
This week, John Dudley and I decided to get serious about the content of this newsletter (just kidding, we’re actually always serious about it but since April Fool’s Day was this week… you see what I was getting at there, right?), and the result is an edition that is smokin’-hot! Dudley asks: Do running backs really matter? I wax poetic about my frolicking around at PWCC and spending money like a drunken sailor on auctions! Plus, the Quick Hits section is yet again the highlight of the publication. So, now that spring is officially here, let’s hop right into the newest edition of the Nonsense Newsletter!
By John Dudley
The demise of the running back position in the NFL is a common topic on the talking head shows. Worse though, is the plight of the running back in the hobby. I was going to defend the position in the hobby recently when I saw someone post the “never buy running backs” mantra. I’m normally opposed to such hard-and-fast rules and the contrarian in me immediately began looking for examples of running backs that were great buys. The thing is, I drew a blank. I asked myself if there is any active running back whose cards will be more valuable in five years beyond simple inflation. I’m still asking it and used my column this week to try to get an answer.
The Youngsters
When looking for potential breakout guys in the hobby, most people focus on the youngsters. That’s a good impulse, but part of me worries that the way that running backs are used will make it difficult for a back to get hobby attention. It is certainly true that backs aren’t as central to NFL teams, but one only has to go back to 2021 and Jonathan Taylor to find a back as dominant and important to his team as any 1990s back.
The youngsters have another advantage in that the card market has soured on running backs so much that their cards are cheap. Take Bijan Robinson for example. His Silver Prizm RC can be found for around $10. It’s not hard to see a world where that jumps to $20. Unlike quarterbacks that are vastly overvalued, the running backs are almost criminally underpriced. This sets the bar incredibly low for improvement.
Even though running back rookie cards aren’t priced too high, it will still take dominant performances like Taylor’s to move the needle in the card world. Throw in the way teams treat running backs as disposable and I’m not confident any of the youngsters will see their cards gain value after five years though. While I don’t see any backs that jump out as sure things, I do like the idea of just betting the field and saying one of these guys will hit big.
By John McTaggart
I started selling on Ebay likely before a good portion of you were even breathing oxygen on this planet.
My Ebay account can be traced back to 2002, believe it or not, which makes me both old and wise in the ways of the Ebay-sphere.
I remember selling Jamal Lewis rookies, buying Lebron and countless others over the years.
I sell a ton on Ebay even today, and have come to accept the fees as a necessary evil to actually moving cards without having to spend an entire weekend set up a card show.
Lately, however, I’ve been focused more and more on Thursday nights and the PWCC auction.
Sure, they had a few issues a while back with the who getting ousted from Ebay for shill bidding allegations.
And sure, maybe you don’t always get the best deal.
But I still dig it.
Quick Hits
Hobby News- It’s another record month for grading volume. I had wondered if PSA had capped their capacity around 1.2 million, but they ramped it up to 1.33 million. Overall, the big four companies graded 1.7 million cards. CGC looks like a winner with decent gains, but I am skeptical of their 68% bump in basketball and wonder if the gains are a product of updates to their registry like happened a few months ago.
Vintage- Another auction in the books, another record for vintage cards getting obliterated. Robert Edwards Auctions recent March Encore Sale was a blast for pre-war baseball card fans, as several record-setting prices were set, including 1933 Babe Ruth PSA 6 that went for more than $32,000! For more on the auction and the record-setting values click here.
Hobby News- Bowman is out and they are continuing the retro-fractor game of making Bowman “1sts” of some of the greats of yesteryear. 2024 Bowman gives us Bob Gibson and a big surprise with Pete Rose. The retrofractors have held value more than I expected and are looking to become a staple in the hobby as they achieve key card status.
Big Mover of the Week- Our Big Mover of the Week is Stefon Diggs. Collectors love the idea of Diggs with Stroud and his Card Ladder Index has spiked 30% in the last week. I’m not sold on him as he is 30 now and his current stats aren’t enough to get him in the HOF as the HOF hates receivers. In a few years, he’ll be stuck behind a crop of snubbed receivers that all have a better case for the HOF.
The Sports Card Nonsense newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors and contributors. They are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation for purchases or of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any assets.