Nonsense Newsletter No. 131: A Bowman check-in, Concerns mount for graded cards, GameStop gets in the game and much more!
Ih this week’s installment of the Nonsense Newsletter, John Dudley does a check in with Bowman baseball. I raise some concerns about the health of the graded card market, and the Quick Hits section is worthy of some kind of prize this week (as usual). So, let’s kick back on this Friday and enjoy yet another stellar edition of the Nonsense Newsletter!
By John Dudley
Topps unleased 2024 Bowman into the world last week and it will likely take a month or so for the frenzy to subside. While Bowman gives us a new crop of prospects to clamor for, the players from the 2024 set and older ones are busy on the field trying to work their way to the big leagues.
A key part of prospecting that gets overlooked is that you have to check to see how the players are actually performing. It’s early, but it’s not too early to peek in and see how some of the big-name prospects in the hobby are faring and maybe even find a couple of new prospects to chase.
Looking Good
James Wood (Washington AAA)- Wood is on fire in the hobby and he’s on fire at the plate too. It really is just a matter of time now until he gets the call to the big leagues. The Nationals don’t have any real hurry to move him up though as they are still in rebuilding mode. Things have been bleak for the Nats and it’s fun to think of a lineup anchored by Wood, Abrams, and House after a few seasons of tanking. Wood is making it hard to wait as he is obliterating AAA pitching right now and showing the power/speed combo that foretells 30/30 or even 40/40 seasons to come.
Wood’s Bowman Chrome Auto isn’t cheap with raw copies going for $150 and PSA Gem Mint 10s getting $450. His prices haven’t really moved though as they’ve been high for a while. This is probably the last window to buy in before he gets a call-up bump but we’ve also seen those bumps be short-lived so only buy if you feel the price is good and not out of FOMO.
By John McTaggart
Admittedly, I’m a little confused lately.
For many, many years I’ve been selling, trading and buying trading cards, and to be honest, the core formula has been pretty simple for a pretty long time.
Buy the card raw and send it off to grading.
The money, as a rule, has always been in the margins between graded value and actual costs associated with the card.
For example: Pay $10 for a raw card. Send it off to PSA, for instance, pay the $18.99 for the grading fee. Add the raw cost to the grading fee (plus shipping) and you have the total cost of the card.
So, to keep this stream of thought going here, let’s say I’ve got a total of $30 into a card (raw+grading), and I was fortunate enough to have the card grade a 10.
Sell the card for $60 or so, and I have a gross profit of about $30.
Pretty basic way to explain this, but in the end, it’s not too complex at all.
Recently, however, this theory has stumbled to the finish line, with graded cards, regardless of the actual grade, really struggling to sell.
Now, I’ve near been one to squeeze out every dime from a graded card, and quite often, I’m pricing cards below comps overall.
Still, cards are sitting in the store for days and weeks.
And I’m not talking cards that have zero interest to most people.
Many of these are current, trendy players, and not base cards either.
Quick Hits
Hobby News- Gamestop to the moon! A challenger appears in the card market and it is an unexpected one. Gamestop is now offering to buy PSA-slabbed cards in select states in select locations. I think the potential is great here as this offers a new fast and convenient avenue to turn cards into cash. The big questions will be what percentage they pay and what data do they use for pricing. I’m hopeful my local store will participate so will try to report back next week with more concrete info.
Hobby News- Baseball is a game of stats and Baseball Savant unleashed some new ones on us with a variety of stats that track bat motion using Stat Cast. Find the new stats here. There are several new ones and the fun will come in seeing how some of them interact. It’ll take a while to figure out how to use the data and how to interpret it. What jumps out though is that Juan Soto is in a class by himself as he blends the characteristics of a power hitter (bat speed) with that of a contact hitter (squaring up). He’s far and away the best with that combination and it’s not close. Also, these stats confirm what all the other advanced stats do: William Contreras is one of the best hitters in the game right now.
The Sports Card Nonsense newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors and contributors. They are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation for purchases or of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any assets.