Nonsenseletter #10
The Return of the Nonsense
EDITOR’S NOTE: Hey folks, after a break over the holidays, we are returning weekly. We have been working on a lot of content over the break so we have about 10 articles in the can ready for release. John McTaggert and John Going forward, you can expect the newsletter on Friday mornings!
Sports Cards Nonsense Launches YouTube Show
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2021-22 NBA Rookie Preview
Panini is dropping the first physical product of the 2021-22 season this week with their NBA Hoops release. Here’s a bold take; this rookie class stands a chance to be one of the best of all time. I’ve watched a ton of League Pass early in the season and have really focused on a lot of the rookies. Now, keep in mind, I am not making direct comparisons when I say “XYZ player’s ceiling is Scottie Pippen”. People seem to have a hard time understanding the concept of ceilings. It doesn’t mean, he’s better than, as good as today, or is guaranteed to be as good as. It’s simply an imperfect way to explain potential.
Look, I’ve watched a ton of games this year but no-one has the time to watch everything. Here is a great site to track rookie performance to supplement your watching. Here is a list of guys that I’m buying, some are obvious, many are not. This draft is DEEEEEEEEEP and while I’m not sure that I see future GOATs, there’s money to be made from top to bottom here.
First Round
1. Pistons draft Cade Cunningham
He’s shown us a lot. Mobley probably should’ve gone #1 but Cade is averaging 15, 6, and 5 as a rookie on a dreadful team. This guy is a player. Hard to tell how good he can ultimately be but you should be pumped if you get a Cade auto.
2. Rockets draft Jalen Green
He’s had a few monster games. For me, Green is the biggest risk/reward in this draft. I can see him being a bust, I can also see him being a scoring leader. He’s got the social media hype to keep his pricing reasonably high over the coming year or so.
3. Cavaliers draft Evan Mobley
Hi Tim Duncan in the low post with guard skills. Seriously, Mobley is a video game character. He has the guard skills to play those positions (He’s not currently), and he’s consistent and solid in the low post. As his career evolves, he will move from a 4/5 to a 3/4 and ultimately a 2/3. He’s on a really good team and will have an opportunity to have some big games in the playoffs this year. He is a sure thing at this point. Buy, buy, buy.
4. Raptors draft Scottie Barnes
Kevin Garnett is the ceiling here. This guy is a freak athlete with unbelievable strength in the low post. Seems like another sure thing here. Treat yourself to this short video clip.
5. Magic draft Jalen Suggs
I like what I’ve seen here but haven’t seen enough to put a “Buy” on him. He’s shown some real attitude and leadership on a young and lousy, yet talented team. The jury is still out on Suggs but definitely worth a hold.
6. Thunder draft Josh Giddey
There’s so much to like here. The guy fills up the box score every night but he’s had trouble shooting the ball. If he can improve his shooting, this guy still has monster potential. OKC did well this draft.
7. Warriors draft Jonathan Kuminga
Kuminga willed himself into minutes this year. Everyone around the Warriors is impressed with his physicality and how hard he works. this guy is a freak athlete and has had a few monster games. Golden State is going to be a title contender but it may take some time for him to get meaningful minutes. Kuminga is definitely a long term hold.
8. Magic draft Franz Wagner
He just pulled into the lead for rookie of the year. Wagner is a great scorer, can rebound, and has shown some leadership skills for Orlando. You’ll want to buy Franz.
9. Kings draft Davion Mitchell
Great defensive player. Looks like Sidney Moncrief to me (search him if you don’t know Sidney). Almost averaging double digits, this guy is a hold for sure.
11. Hornets draft James Bouknight
Everyone loves playing with Lamelo. Bouknight has had some highlight finishes. This guy can get to the rim and will likely take the Terry Rozier spot next year. He’s a player for sure and he can score. Should be cheap and worth buying a bit.
13. Pacers draft Chris Duarte
I love him but he’s a 24 year old rookie. Like Mobley, he’s been consistent every night. I don’t see a ton of hobby love for Duarte in the future but he will definitely be a franchise fave wherever he spends the bulk of his career. “Cool card”
14. Warriors draft Moses Moody
May as well buy a little bit of him. We haven’t seen much of him but he’s with a great franchise. Does he end up taking the Klay spot in a few years or is he trade bait? He will be cheap, worth buying for long-term.
16. Thunder draft Alperen Sengun (officially traded to Rockets)
Nasty big. Can also compete for that 3rd All-NBA big spot one day.
24. Rockets draft Josh Christopher
Nice contributions on a bad team. Worth taking a chance here.
25. Clippers draft Quentin Grimes (officially traded to Knicks)
Has contributed a bit. Not much else to say. Wouldn’t be the worst rookie pull and worth holding to see what he can turn into.
26. Nuggets draft Nah’Shon Hyland
His nickname is Bones. That makes him awesome. Beyond that, he has a really nice all around game and in my view, will at least be a starter in this league in a few years. Not a bust, significant upside. Will be cheap, buy!
27. Nets draft Cameron Thomas
Ok, we are at the Belichick point in the draft. Cam Thomas has shown some amazing flashes from summer league to the Nets. He’s beloved by KD and Harden and in a league that lacks great shooting guards, this kid can rise to the top. I’m a big buyer of Cam and I see a multi-time All-NBA upside career for him. He should be pretty cheap so load up.
32. Knicks draft Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (officially traded to Thunder)
The Notorious JRE has a really nice game log. Keep an eye on him and hold if you pull some of his stuff. He’s cheap enough that you should be able to invest.
35. Pelicans draft Herbert Jones
Ok, this is why you subscribe to this newsletter. If you want a guy that you can buy really low under the radar and who is going to be a multi-time All-NBA player, Herb Jones is your guy. Now, if you haven’t followed the early NBA season, and most haven’t, you won’t know who he is. He has the chance to be the next Scottie Pippen. Last night, he TERRORIZED the Warriors and won that game. He can take the ball at will, his feet are nailed to the floor with every pick he sets and he’s getting more comfortable around the rim. This guy is a diamond in the rough and you should take this information and buy as much Herb Jones as you can before the hobby catches on.
38. Bulls draft Ayo Dosunmu
Awesome player with all-star potential.
51. Grizzlies draft BJ Boston (reportedly traded to Clippers via Pelicans)
Nice contibutor so far. I can see him starting in this league one day.
55. Thunder draft Aaron Wiggins
He’s had some big games. Another cheap guy with big upside.
SGC vs. PSA vs. BGS by John Dudley
Part 6: Modern Football
This is the 6th in a series of articles exploring how the market treats the three major grading companies (PSA, SGC, and BGS). Card grading is big business and can add value to a collection, but it can also cost an arm and a leg.
These articles aim to help you get the most bang for your buck when choosing a grading company. Perhaps the biggest question when sending a card off to be graded is how much will the grading improve the value. Previous articles have shown that PSA cards valued the most, but that there are lots of times where using a service that sells for less*(SGC in this case) makes sense as the costs associated with grading vary widely. Surprisingly, BGS has not fared well regularly coming in with lower values than SGC along with higher costs and wait times. This week we turn back to football after last week’s foray into modern basketball.
This week’s data is much more plentiful than that of modern basketball.
Having looked at a good deal of sales data, it does appear that modern football SGC and BGS sales are better than modern basketball just by sheer volume alone. The very fact that more sales are available for modern football than modern basketball is clearly a good sign for both SGC and BGS.
The volume of data means that it is possible to return to the method used in other articles where sales are checked at or near the start of each month for each card. Each card is assigned a representative sale as close to the 1st of the month as possible. Each month the total sales for each grading company is totaled for all cards examined to create a sales index. Data for this project came from Cardladder.com, 130point.com, and Ebay.com.
Previously, all examinations have focused strictly on gem mint cards.
The reason for this is twofold. First, for pretty much every card looked at the gem grade is the one people care about and are shooting for. Second, SGC and BGS use a half point scale. PSA technically uses one too, but their half point grades are extremely rare even if they are supposed to become more prevalent.
As we move on to looking at older issued cards, sticking to gem mint grades is no longer feasible. In order to foster better comparisons, only whole number grades are examined.
While there are some interesting SGC 7.5 sales, it is easier to compare PSA 7s with SGC 7s. The possibility of getting a 7.5 or an 8.5 is one that collectors should take into account when sending off cards as those half grades do provide a nice bump in pricing.
The cards included in the indices are 1981 Topps Joe Montana 216 in 8 grade, 1984 Topps Dan Marino 123 in 8 form, 1984 Topps John Elway 63 in 8 form, 1986 Topps Jerry Rice 63 in 8 form, 1988 Topps Bo Jackson 327 in 9 form, 1991 Stadium Club Brett Favre 94 in 9 form, 1998 Topps Chrome Peyton Manning 165 in 9 form, 2000 Bowman Tom Brady 236 in 9 form, 2001 Topps Drew Brees 328 in 9 form, 2005 Topps Aaron Rodgers 431 in 10 form, 2012 Topps Russell Wilson 165 in 10 form, and 2017 Donruss Patrick Mahomes 177 in 10 form.
Graph 1 shows the results for each index. The gap between PSA and SGC is shown to be narrowing. In August, SGC cards sold for 63% of PSA cards on average. By November, this number jumps to 77%. Both numbers are in line with what was observed for ultra-modern baseball. It is also the strongest showing for SGC since that examination. BGS also has its strongest showing, but lags behind SGC in each month. BGS sells for about 55% of PSA cards, but that number spikes to 70% in November. The higher the percentage that SGC sales for, the more it is reasonable to send them cards. At a roughly 75% rate, a collector would need to expect a price increase of $500.00 to make more with PSA and their current $150.00 service level compared to SGC’s $25.00.
Graph 1: Index Values in USD for Major Grading Companies
When creating the dataset, it was clear that the Tom Brady rookie card would dominate the indices. In Graph 2, Tom Brady has been excluded. Doing so yields some interesting observations. First, the bump BGS saw in November completely disappears. BGS’s sales solidify around the 55% range when comparing them to PSA. The figures for SGC remain fairly steady. If anything, they improve with a clear trend of narrowing the gap with PSA.
One of the key takeaways each is that BGS sales are lagging behind SGC. Given that BGS is more expensive and has longer wait times, the only reasons for using them boils down to personal preference. SGC is looking more and more like a viable option. This is especially true for football and baseball, but there are times where it is rational to send in basketball as well. Next week, the focus shifts to the vintage market where SGC’s reputation is stronger than that of the modern markets.
Graph 2: Index Values in USD for Major Grading Companies
